
%\VignetteEngine{knitr::knitr}
%\VignetteIndexEntry{tbm}
%\VignetteDepends{tram, tbm, mboost, survival, lattice, latticeExtra, partykit,TH.data, colorspace,gamlss.data,trtf}

\documentclass[article,nojss,shortnames]{jss}

%% packages
\usepackage{thumbpdf}
%%% \usepackage{animate}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amstext,amsmath,amssymb,amsthm}
\usepackage{accents}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{rotating}
\usepackage{verbatim}
\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
%%\usepackage[nolists]{endfloat}

\newcommand{\cmd}[1]{\texttt{#1()}}

<<setup, echo = FALSE, results = "hide", message = FALSE>>=
set.seed(290875)

dir <- system.file("applications", package = "tbm")
datadir <- system.file("rda", package = "TH.data")


sapply(c("tram", "survival", "tbm", "mboost", "lattice", 
         "latticeExtra", "partykit"), library, char = TRUE)

trellis.par.set(list(plot.symbol = list(col=1,pch=20, cex=0.7),
                     box.rectangle = list(col=1),
                     box.umbrella = list(lty=1, col=1),
                     strip.background = list(col = "white")))
ltheme <- canonical.theme(color = FALSE)     ## in-built B&W theme
ltheme$strip.background$col <- "transparent" ## change strip bg
lattice.options(default.theme = ltheme)

knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE, results = 'markup', error = FALSE,
                      warning = FALSE, message = FALSE,
                      tidy = FALSE, cache = FALSE, size = "small",
                      fig.width = 6, fig.height = 4, fig.align = "center",
                      out.width = NULL, ###'.6\\linewidth', 
                      out.height = NULL,
                      fig.scap = NA)
knitr::render_sweave()  # use Sweave environments
knitr::set_header(highlight = '')  # do not \usepackage{Sweave}
## R settings
options(prompt = "R> ", continue = "+  ", useFancyQuotes = FALSE)  # JSS style
options(width = 75)
library("colorspace")
col <- diverge_hcl(2, h = c(246, 40), c = 96, l = c(65, 90))
fill <- diverge_hcl(2, h = c(246, 40), c = 96, l = c(65, 90), alpha = .3)
@

\newcommand{\TODO}[1]{{\color{red} #1}}

\newcommand\Torsten[1]{{\color{blue}Torsten: ``#1''}}

% File with math commands etc.
\input{defs.tex}

\renewcommand{\thefootnote}{}

%% code commands
\newcommand{\Rclass}[1]{`\code{#1}'}
%% JSS
\author{Torsten Hothorn \\ Universit\"at Z\"urich}
\Plainauthor{Hothorn}

\title{Transformation Boosting Machines: Empirical Evaluation of the
\textbf{tbm} Package}
\Plaintitle{Transformation Boosting Machines}
\Shorttitle{The \pkg{tbm} Package}

\Abstract{
This document discusses technical details on the empirical evaluation of
the reference implementation of transformation boosting machines in the \pkg{tbm}
package. Model estimation, interpretation, and criticism is illustrated for
eight life science applications. Setup and detailed results of a simulation study
based on artificial data generating processes are presented.
}

\Keywords{Conditional Transformation Model, Shift Transformation Model}
\Plainkeywords{Conditional Transformation Model, Shift Transformation Model}

\Address{
  Torsten Hothorn\\
  Institut f\"ur Epidemiologie, Biostatistik und Pr\"avention \\
  Universit\"at Z\"urich \\
  Hirschengraben 84, CH-8001 Z\"urich, Switzerland \\
  \texttt{Torsten.Hothorn@uzh.ch} \\
  \url{http://tiny.uzh.ch/bh} \\
}

\begin{document}

<<citation, echo = FALSE>>=
year <- substr(packageDescription("tbm")$Date, 1, 4)
version <- packageDescription("tbm")$Version
@
%\footnote{Please cite this document as: Torsten Hothorn (\Sexpr{year})
%Transformation Boosting Machines: Empirical Evaluation of the \textbf{tbm}
%Package. R package vignette version \Sexpr{version}, 
%URL \url{https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=tram}.}

% \input{todo}

\section{Introduction}

Transformation boosting machines estimate conditional transformation models
(CTMs) and shift
transformation models (STMs) by optimising the corresponding log-likelihood. In a
nutshell, transformation models are fully parameterised by appropriate 
basis functions those parameters are (in total or partially) linked to
predictor variables. The method is applicable to a broad range of problems
because (1) the likelihood allows to handle discrete and continuous responses
under all forms or random censoring and truncation and (2) simple linear,
more complex nonlinear additive, or completely unstructured (tree-based)
conditional paramater functions can be estimated by using appropriate basis
functions for the predictor variables.

%The algorithms employ the statistical view on boosting and iteratively
%improve the fit estimating (relatively) simple models to updated gradients.
%A simple illustration (for the Body Fat Mass application presented in
%Section~\ref{sec:bodyfat}) is given in Figure~\ref{fig:movie}. The inital
%frame of this animation shows the density obtained from the unconditional
%maximum likelihood estimator in the model
%\begin{eqnarray*}
%\Prob(\rY \le \ry) = \Phi(\basisy(\ry)^\top \hat{\parm}_\text{ML}).
%\end{eqnarray*}
%%% this needs Adobe Acroread but they don't serve Linux anymore
%\begin{figure}
%\begin{center}
%\animategraphics[controls,width=\linewidth]{1}{fit_movie}{1}{101}
%\caption{Iterative boosting for the Body Fat Mass data. The left panel shows
%the unconditional (first frame) or conditional densities (other frames).
%Blue dots correspond to the likelihood of observations. The
%right panel shows the increasing in-sample log-likelihood as the model gets
%better and better. Use Adobe AcroRead to watch the animation. \label{fig:movie}}
%\end{center}
%\end{figure}
%The Bernstein basis $\basisy$ allows a relatively flexible transformation
%function, and thus density, to be estimated (the initial frame shows a
%bimodel unconditional distribution). The quality of this model is assessed by
%the multivariate gradient of the log-likelihood contributions with respect to
%$\hat{\parm}_\text{ML}$. \CTM~starts by fitting potentially nonlinear
%functions of each predictor variable to this gradient and updates the
%parameter $\parm(\rx)$. Starting with the second frame, the left panel of
%Figure~\ref{fig:movie} depicts the conditional densities for all
%observations (the blue dots representing the observation) and the right
%panel shows the increasing total in-sample log-likelihood. 

This document describes technical details of the empirical evaluation of
transformation boosting machines by means of eight applications
(Section~\ref{sec:app}) and artificial data generating processes
(Section~\ref{sec:dgp}). For each of the eight applications, the exact model
setup, the best performing model, and the corresponding model interpretation and
model criticism is presented. The source code for these benchmark analysis
is available from the directory
<<src-appl, results = "hide">>=
system.file("applications", package = "tbm")
@
Simulation experiments based on the data generating processes presented in
Section~\ref{sec:dgp} can be reproduced using the source code in
<<src-sim, results = "hide">>=
system.file("simulations", package = "tbm")
@
This document also contains graphical representations of the out-of-sample
log-likelihoods for all settings in the simulation experiments
(Section~\ref{sec:results}).


\section{Applications} \label{sec:app}

<<results, echo = FALSE>>=
ds <- c("Beetles Exctinction Risk",
        "Birth Weight Prediction",
        "Body Fat Mass",
        "CAO/ARO/AIO-04 DFS",
        "Childhood Malnutrition",
        "Head Circumference",
        "PRO-ACT ALSFRS",
        "PRO-ACT OS")
names(ds) <- c("ex_beetles.rda", "ex_fetus.rda", "ex_bodyfat.rda", "ex_CAO.rda", 
        "ex_india.rda", "ex_heads.rda", "ex_ALSFRS.rda", "ex_ALSsurv.rda")
models <- c(expression(paste("L ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("L ", beta(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("N ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("N ", beta(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("T ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("T ", beta(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("Tree ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
       expression(paste("F ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))))
names(models) <- c("glm_ctm", "glm_tram", "gam_ctm", "gam_tram", 
              "tree_ctm", "tree_tram", "trtf_tree", "trtf_forest")
mor <- c("gam_ctm", "glm_ctm", "tree_ctm", "gam_tram", "glm_tram", 
        "tree_tram", "trtf_tree", "trtf_forest")

pit <- function(object, data) {
    cf <- predict(object, newdata = data, coef = TRUE)
    tmp <- object$model
    ret <- numeric(NROW(data))
    for (i in 1:NROW(data)) {
        coef(tmp) <- cf[i,]
        ret[i] <- predict(tmp, newdata = data[i,,drop = FALSE], type = "distribution")
    }
    ret
}

pitplot <- function(object, data, main = "") {
    u <- pit(object, data)
    plot(1:length(u) / length(u), sort(u), xlab = "Theoretical Uniform Quantiles", 
         ylab = "PIT Quantiles", main = main, ylim = c(0, 1), xlim = c(0, 1))
    abline(a = 0, b = 1, col = "red")
} 

plot.ctm <- function(x, which = sort(unique(selected(object))), 
                     obs = TRUE, ...) {

    object <- x
    q <- mkgrid(x$model, n = 100)
    X <- model.matrix(x$model$model, data = q)
    pfun <- function(which) {
        stopifnot(length(which) == 1)
        df <- model.frame(object, which = which)[[1]]
        df <- lapply(df, function(x) seq(from = min(x), 
                                         to = max(x), length = 50))
        df2 <- do.call("expand.grid", c(df, q))
        class(object) <- class(object)[-1]
        tmp <- predict(object, newdata = df, which = which)
        CS <- diag(ncol(tmp[[1]]))
        CS[upper.tri(CS)] <- 1
        cf <- tmp[[1]] %*% CS
        df2$pr <- as.vector(t(X %*% t(cf)))
        ret <- cbind(df2, which = names(df)[1])
        names(ret)[1:2] <- c("x", "y")
        ret
    }

    ret <- do.call("rbind", lapply(which, pfun))
    at <- quantile(ret$pr, prob = 0:10/10)

    pf <- function(x, y, z, subscripts, ...) {
        xname <- as.character(unique(ret[subscripts, "which"]))
        xo <- model.frame(object, which = xname)[[1]][[xname]]
        yo <- object$response
        panel.levelplot.raster(x, y, z, subscripts, ...)
        panel.contourplot(x, y, z, subscripts, contour = TRUE, ...)
        if (obs)
            panel.xyplot(x = xo, y = yo, pch = 20)
    }
    levelplot(pr ~ x + y | which, data = ret, panel = pf,
              scales = list(x = list(relation = "free")), region = TRUE, 
              at = at, col.regions = grey.colors(length(at)), ...)
}

### source("movie.R")
@

For eight prediction problems, the out-of-sample log-likelihood was
evalulated based on $100$ subsamples ($3/4 N$ as learning sample and $1/4 N$
as test sample). For problems with categorical responses or right-censored
responses, subsamples were stratified with respect to the response class or
censoring status (such that the distribution of the response or the
the censoring rate were the same in learning and test samples). The
out-of-sample log-likelihood was centered by the out-of-sample
log-likelihood of the uninformative model which was estimated and tested on
the very same folds.

Transformation boosting machines were estimated using package \pkg{tbm}
\citep{pkg:tbm}. Transformation trees and forests as implemented in package
\pkg{trtf} \citep{pkg:trtf} served as main competitors.

\CTM~(parameter $\parm(\rx)$) with nonlinear (N, B-spline) basis functions,
linear (L) basis functions, and tree-based (T, depth two) basis functions.
\STM~(parameter $\eshiftparm(\rx)$) with nonlinear (N, B-spline) basis functions,
linear (L) basis functions, and tree-based (T, depth two) basis functions.

\subsection{Beetles Exctinction Risk}

<<riskplot, eval = FALSE, echo = FALSE>>=
x <- risk[,mor] - ll0
med <- apply(x, 2, median, na.rm = TRUE)
boxplot(x, axes = FALSE, main = ds[file], outline = FALSE, var.width = TRUE,
        ylab = "Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered)", col = col[(med == max(med)) + 1],
        ylim = ylim)
abline(v = c(3.5, 6.5), col = "lightgrey")
abline(h = 0, col = "lightgrey")
abline(h = max(med), col = col[2])
axis(1, at = 1:ncol(x), labels = models[colnames(x)])
axis(2)
box()
@

\begin{figure}[t]
<<beetles-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_beetles.rda"))
ylim <- c(-.5, .5)
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<beetles-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "beetles.rda"))

ldata <- bmodel
ldata$TS <- NULL

X <- model.matrix(~ species - 1, data = ldata)
ldata$species <- NULL

nvars <- c("mean_body_size", "mean_elev", "flowers",
          "niche_decay", "niche_diam", "niche_canopy", "distribution")
fvars <- colnames(ldata)[!colnames(ldata) %in% c("RL", nvars)]
xvars <- c(nvars, fvars)

ldata[nvars] <- lapply(nvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))

fm_gam <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("RL ~ buser(X, K = Ainv, df = 2) + ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("RL ~ buser(X, K = Ainv, df = 1) + ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_glm <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("RL ~ buser(X, K = Ainv, df = 2) +",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("RL ~ buser(X, K = Ainv, df = 1) +",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- as.formula(paste("RL ~ ", paste(xvars, collapse = "+")))

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]
@

This problem aims at the prediction of the exctinction risk of 
beetles \citep{Seibold_Brandl_Schmidl_2014}. The response is the
Red List status ranging from 0 (least concern) to 5 (regionally extinct) 
of $N = \Sexpr{N}$ saproxylic beetles, where for each
species $\Sexpr{p}$ ($\Sexpr{p - xf}$ numeric and $\Sexpr{xf}$ categorical) predictors
are available.

We start with an unconditional proportional odds model (using $\pZ =
\text{expit}$ and one parameter for each but the highest Red List category):
<<beetles-model0, echo = TRUE, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- Polr(RL ~ 1, data = ldata)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file,
"0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<beetles-null, echo = FALSE>>=
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, 200)[[1]]
p <- c(predict(m_mlt, newdata = data.frame(RL = q), type = "density"))
names(p) <- as.character(q)
barplot(p, xlab = "Red List Status", ylab = "Distribution")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}

Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
a tree-structured model for $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this
model was fitted using
<<beetles-model, cache = TRUE>>=
fm_tree
bm <- stmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_tree, data = ldata,
               method = quote(mboost::blackboost))[626]
@
(the default tree was grown to a depth of two). The in-sample log-likelihood
is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<insampleriskplot, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(-risk(bm), xlab = "Boosting Iteration", ylab = "Log-likelihood", type = "l")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
\end{figure}

The model consists of trees with two-way interactions, basically all
variables seemed to play a role in the model (the numbers giving the
absolute number of splits in each of these variables):
<<beetles-prop, echo = FALSE>>=
x <- tabulate(do.call("c", sapply(get("ens", environment(bm$predict)), 
    function(x) nodeapply(x$model, ids = nodeids(x$model, terminal = FALSE), FUN = function(x) split_node(x)$varid - 1))), nbins = length(vars))
names(x) <- vars
x
@

For six selected beetle species, the conditional distribution of extinction
as predicted from the tree-based model is given in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}.
\begin{figure}
<<beetles-plot, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 6, fig.height = 8>>=
idx <- sapply(levels(ldata$RL), function(x) 
    which(ldata$RL == x)[1])
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "density", q = q)
layout(matrix(1:6, nrow = 3, byrow = TRUE))
out <- sapply(1:6, function(x) barplot(d[,x], xlab = "Red List",
              ylab = "Density", main = paste(gsub("_", " ", rownames(ldata)[idx[x]]), " (RL:", ldata$RL[idx[x]], ")", sep = "")))
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
\end{figure}

In this special case, the algorithm is identical to boosting for
proportional odds models as implemented in the \cmd{PropOdds} family
\citep{Schmid_Hothorn_Maloney_2011}; and
thus the in-sample risks are essentially identical:
<<beetles-mlt, cache = TRUE>>=
po <- blackboost(fm_tree, data = ldata, family = PropOdds())[626]
max(abs(risk(bm) - risk(po)))
@

\subsection{Birth Weight Prediction}

Models shall be used to improve birth weight prediction in small 
fetuses (weighting $\le 1600$ g at birth) based on 
measurements obtained using three-dimensional (3D) sonography 
\citep{Schild_Maringa_Siemer_2008}.

\begin{figure}[t]
<<fetus-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_fetus.rda"))
ylim <- c(0, 1.7)
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<fetus-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "fetus.rda"))

fetus$birthweight <- as.double(fetus$birthweight)
ldata <- fetus

xvars <- colnames(ldata)
xvars <- xvars[xvars != "birthweight"]

ldata[xvars] <- lapply(xvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))


fm_gam <- c("ctm" = as.formula(paste("birthweight ~ ",
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
                paste("bbs(", xvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
            "stm" = as.formula(paste("birthweight ~ ", 
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE)", collapse = "+"), "+",
                paste("bbs(", xvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))
fm_glm <- c("ctm" = as.formula(paste("birthweight ~ ",
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
            "stm" = as.formula(paste("birthweight ~ ", 
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- birthweight ~ .

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]
@

The response is the birth weight in gram of $N = \Sexpr{N}$ singleton fetuses, where for each
fetus $\Sexpr{p}$ numeric predictors are available.

We start with an unconditional model (using $\pZ = \Phi$ and an Bernstein
polynomial of order six):
<<fetus-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- BoxCox(birthweight ~ 1, data = ldata, extrapolate = TRUE)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file,
"0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<fetus-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "density", K = 200,
     xlab = "Birth Weight (in gram)", ylab = "Density", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}


Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
an additive smooth model for $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this
model was fitted using
<<fetus-model, cache = TRUE>>=
fm_gam[["stm"]]
bm <- stmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_gam[["stm"]], data = ldata,
               method = quote(mboost::mboost))[253]
@
The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}
and a QQ-plot based on the probability-integral transform in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}.
It is important to note that the term $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ must not contain an
intercept. The model was therefore composed of linear model terms (without
intercept) and smooth deviations from linear functions (all with the same
degree of freedom to facilitate unbiasedness). Thus, the model
selects between linear and smooth additive functions.

\begin{figure}
<<fetus-risk, echo = FALSE>>=
<<insampleriskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<fetus-pit, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 5, fig.height = 5>>=
pitplot(bm, ldata, main = ds[file])
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Probability-integral transform QQ-plot. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}}
\end{figure}

The selected terms were
<<fetus-prop, echo = FALSE>>=
tab <- matrix(tabulate(selected(bm), nbins = length(bm$baselearner)), ncol = 1)
rownames(tab) <- names(bm$baselearner)
colnames(tab) <- ""
tab
@
and the corresponding partial contributions are plotted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "partial")}}.
Only minor deviations from linearity can be observed (and the out-of-sample
risk of the linear model was almost the same). In addition, the
baseline transformation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "base")}})
is almost linear, indicating that a normal linear model \citep[reported by][]{Schild_Maringa_Siemer_2008}
might be a good compromise between prediction accuracy and interpretability for this problem.

\begin{figure}
<<fetus-plot, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 6, fig.height = 6>>=
w <- sort(unique(selected(bm)))
mbm <- bm
class(mbm) <- class(mbm)[-1]
nc <- ceiling(length(w) / 2) * 2
layout(matrix(1:nc, ncol = 2))
plot(mbm, which = w, ylim = c(-3, 3))
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Partial contributions to additive predictor
$\eshiftparm(\rx)$. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "partial")}}}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
<<fetus-base, echo = FALSE>>=
tmp <- as.mlt(m_mlt)
coef(tmp) <- nuisance(bm)
plot(tmp, newdata = data.frame(1), K = 200, type = "trafo", xlab = "Birth weight (in gram)", 
     ylab = "Transformation h", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Baseline transformation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "base")}}}
\end{figure}

For five selected observations, the conditional distribution of birth weight
is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}. The blue dots
indicate the actual observations. Except for the right-most density, the
predicted conditional densities are almost perfectly symmetric (as a
consequence of the linear baseline transformation).

\begin{figure}
<<fetus-dens, echo = FALSE>>=
idx <- order(ldata$birthweight)[floor(c(.1, .25, .5, .75, .9) * nrow(ldata))]
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
matplot(x = q, y = d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "density", q = q), type =
        "l", col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .6), lty = 1, xlab = "Birth Weight (in gram)", ylab = "Density")
j <- sapply(ldata[idx, "birthweight"], function(y) which.min((q - y)^2))
points(ldata[idx, "birthweight"], sapply(1:5, function(i) d[j[i], i]), pch = 19, col = col[1])
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
\end{figure}


\subsection{Body Fat Mass} \label{sec:bodyfat}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<bodyfat-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_bodyfat.rda"))
ylim <- c(0, 1.7)
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<bodyfat-setup, echo = FALSE>>=

data("bodyfat", package = "TH.data")
ldata <- bodyfat

xvars <- colnames(ldata)
xvars <- xvars[xvars != "DEXfat"]

ldata[xvars] <- lapply(xvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))


fm_gam <- c("ctm" = as.formula(paste("DEXfat ~ ", 
                paste("bbs(", xvars, ")", collapse = "+"))),
            "stm" = as.formula(paste("DEXfat ~ ", 
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE)", collapse = "+"), "+",
                paste("bbs(", xvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))
fm_glm <- c("ctm" = as.formula(paste("DEXfat ~ ",
                paste("bols(", xvars, ")", collapse = "+"))),
            "stm" = as.formula(paste("DEXfat ~ ", 
                paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- DEXfat ~ .

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]
@

The response is the body fat mass (in kilogram) of $N = \Sexpr{N}$ study
participants, where for each subject $\Sexpr{p}$ numeric predictors are available
\citep{Garcia_Wagner_Hothorn_2005}.

We start with an unconditional model (using $\pZ = \Phi$ and an Bernstein
polynomial of order six):
<<bodyfat-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- BoxCox(DEXfat ~ 1, data = ldata, prob = c(.1, .99))
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<bodyfat-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "density", K = 200,
     xlab = "Body Fat Mass (in kilogram)", ylab = "Density", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}

Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
an additive smooth model for $\parm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this
model was fitted using
<<bodyfat-model, cache = TRUE>>=
fm_gam[["ctm"]]
bm <- ctmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_gam[["ctm"]], data = ldata,
               method = quote(mboost::mboost))[1000]
@
The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}
and a QQ-plot based on the probability-integral transform in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<bodyfat-risk, echo = FALSE>>=
<<insampleriskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<bodyfat-pit, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 5, fig.height = 5>>=
pitplot(bm, ldata, main = ds[file])
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Probability-integral transform QQ-plot. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}}
\end{figure}

The model is additive in the sense that $\h(\ry \mid \rx) = h_0(\ry) + \sum_{j = 1}^J
\h_j(\ry \mid x_j)$. The partial transformation functions $\h_j$ are plotted
in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ctm")}}.

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
<<bodyfat-ctmplot, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 6, fig.height = 6, dev = "png">>=
plot.ctm(bm, ylab = "Body Fat Mass")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Scatterplots of all predictor variables and the
response, overlaid with partial transformation functions. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ctm")}}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

<<bodyfat-prop, echo = FALSE>>=
tab <- matrix(tabulate(selected(bm), nbins = length(bm$baselearner)), ncol = 1)
rownames(tab) <- names(bm$baselearner)
colnames(tab) <- ""
tab
@

For five selected observations, the conditional distribution of body fat
mass
is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}. The blue dots
indicate the actual observations. 

\begin{figure}
<<bodyfat-dens, echo = FALSE>>=
idx <- order(ldata$DEXfat)[floor(c(.1, .25, .5, .75, .9) * nrow(ldata))]
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
matplot(x = q, y = d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "density", q = q), type =
        "l", col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .6), lty = 1, xlab = "Body Fat Mass (in kilogram)", ylab = "Density")
j <- sapply(ldata[idx, "DEXfat"], function(y) which.min((q - y)^2))
points(ldata[idx, "DEXfat"], sapply(1:5, function(i) d[j[i], i]), pch = 19, col = col[1])
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
\end{figure}


\subsection{CAO/ARO/AIO-04 DFS}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<CAO-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_CAO.rda"))
ylim <- NULL
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<CAO-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "Primary_endpoint_data.rda"))

ldata <- CAOsurv

xvars <- c("strat_t", "strat_n", "randarm",
           "geschlecht", "age", "groesse", "gewicht",
           "ecog_b", "mason",
           "gesamt_t", "gesamt_n", 
           "histo", "grading_b", "ap_anlage",
           "stenose",
           "gesamt_n_col", "UICC", "bentf")

ldata <- ldata[, c("DFS", xvars)]
ldata <- ldata[complete.cases(ldata),]
ldata$UICC <- ldata$UICC[,drop = TRUE]
ldata$ecog_b <- ldata$ecog_b[,drop = TRUE]


nvars <- c("age", "groesse", "gewicht")
fvars <- xvars[!xvars %in% nvars]
xvars <- c(nvars, fvars)

ldata[nvars] <- lapply(nvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))

fm_gam <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("DFS ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("DFS ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_glm <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("DFS ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("DFS ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- as.formula(paste("DFS ~ ", paste(xvars, collapse = "+")))

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]
@

The response is the disease-free survival time of rectal cancer patients
from the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 randomised controlled clinical trial \citep{Roedel_Graeven_Fietkau_2015}.
For $N = \Sexpr{N}$ patients, 
$\Sexpr{p}$ ($\Sexpr{p - xf}$ numeric and $\Sexpr{xf}$ categorical)
baseline predictors are available.

We start with an unconditional Cox model ($\pZ = 1 - \exp(-\exp())$ and a
Bernstein polynomial of order six):
<<CAO-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- Coxph(DFS ~ 1, data = ldata, prob = c(0, .9))
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<CAO-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "survivor", K = 200,
     xlab = "Time (in days)", ylab = "Time", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}

Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
a linear model for $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ had the best performance, this model was fitted using
<<CAO-model, cache = TRUE, eval = FALSE>>=
fm_glm[["stm"]]
bm <- stmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_glm[["stm"]], data = ldata,
               method = quote(mboost::mboost))[963]
@
This is, in fact, a linear Cox model which could have also been fitted using
<<CAO-mlt, cache = TRUE, eval = FALSE>>=
bmCoxPH <- mboost(fm_glm[["stm"]], data = ldata, family = CoxPH())[963]
@

%%% this takes too long in a package vignette
%The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}.

%\begin{figure}
%<<CAO-risk, echo = FALSE>>=
%<<insampleriskplot>>
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
%\end{figure}
%
%The model coefficients are
%<<CAO-prop>>=
%mboost:::coef.mboost(bm)
%@
%
%The negative coefficients are practically equivalent
%<<CAO-propCoxPH>>=
%coef(bmCoxPH)
%@
%
%For five selected observations, the conditional survivor functions 
%are shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}. 
%
%\begin{figure}
%<<CAO-dens, echo = FALSE>>=
%idx <- sample(1:nrow(ldata), 5)
%q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
%matplot(x = q, y = d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "survivor", q = q), type =
%        "l", col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .6), lty = 1, xlab = "Time (in days)", ylab = "Probability")
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
%\end{figure}


\subsection{Childhood Malnutrition}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<india-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 6, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_india.rda"))
ylim <- NULL
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<india-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "india.rda"))

xvars <- c("cage", "breastfeeding", "mbmi", "mage", "medu", 
           "edupartner", "csex", "ctwin", "cbirthorder", 
           "munemployed", "mreligion", "mresidence", "deadchildren",
           "electricity", "radio", "television", "refrigerator", 
           "bicycle", "motorcycle", "car")

fvars <- xvars[sapply(xvars, function(x) length(unique(kids[[x]]))) < 6]
nvars <- xvars[!xvars %in% fvars]
kids[fvars] <- lapply(fvars, function(f) factor(kids[[f]]))
kids[nvars] <- lapply(nvars, function(n) scale(kids[[n]]))

fm_gam <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("stunting ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("stunting ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_glm <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("stunting ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("stunting ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- as.formula(paste("stunting ~ ", paste(xvars, collapse = "+")))

kids$stunting <- as.double(kids$stunting)
ldata <- kids

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]

@

The aim is to predict childhood malnutrition, here measured as stunting,
that is, insufficient height for age. The data for $N = \Sexpr{N}$ children
from India were compiled by \cite{Fenske_Kneib_Hothorn_2011} and include
$\Sexpr{p}$ ($\Sexpr{p - xf}$ numeric and $\Sexpr{xf}$ categorical)
predictors.

We start with an unconditional model (using $\pZ = \Phi$ and an Bernstein
polynomial of order six):
<<india-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- BoxCox(stunting ~ 1, data = ldata, prob = c(.05, .975), extrapolate = TRUE)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file,
"0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<india-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "density", K = 200,
     xlab = "Stunting", ylab = "Density", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}


Model evaluation 
%% (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) 
indicated that 
a tree-based model for $\parm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this
model was fitted using
<<india-model, cache = TRUE, eval = FALSE>>=
fm_tree
bm <- ctmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_tree, data = ldata, 
               method = quote(mboost::blackboost))[515]
@

%%% this takes too long in a package vignette
%The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}
%and a QQ-plot based on the probability-integral transform in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}.
%
%\begin{figure}
%<<india-risk, echo = FALSE, cache = TRUE>>=
%<<insampleriskplot>>
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
%\end{figure}
%
%\begin{figure}[t]
%<<india-pit, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 5, fig.height = 5, cache = TRUE>>=
%pitplot(bm, ldata, main = ds[file])
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Probability-integral transform QQ-plot. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}}
%\end{figure}
%
%
%The model consists of trees with two-way interactions, most splits occured
%in age and breastfeeding, birthorder, and religion:
%<<india-prop, echo = FALSE>>=
%x <- tabulate(do.call("c", sapply(get("ens", environment(bm$predict)), 
%    function(x) nodeapply(x$model, ids = nodeids(x$model, terminal = FALSE), FUN = function(x) split_node(x)$varid -
%1))), nbins = length(all.vars(fm_tree)) - 1)
%names(x) <- all.vars(fm_tree)[-1]
%x
%@
%
%For five selected observations, the conditional distribution of stunting
%is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}. The blue dots
%indicate the actual observations. 
%
%\begin{figure}
%<<india-dens, echo = FALSE>>=
%idx <- order(ldata$stunting)[floor(c(.1, .25, .5, .75, .9) * nrow(ldata))]
%q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
%matplot(x = q, y = d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "density", q = q), type =
%        "l", col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .6), lty = 1, xlab = "Stunting", ylab = "Density")
%j <- sapply(ldata[idx, "stunting"], function(y) which.min((q - y)^2))
%points(ldata[idx, "stunting"], sapply(1:5, function(i) d[j[i], i]), pch = 19, col = col[1])
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
%\end{figure}
%

\subsection{Head Circumference}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<heads-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_heads.rda"))
ylim <- NULL
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

The Fourth Dutch Growth Study \citep{Fredriks_Buuren_Burgmeijer_2000}
is a cross-sectional study that measures growth and development of the
Dutch population between the ages of 0 and 22 years. The study measured, among
other variables, head circumference (HC) and age of 7482 males and 7018
females. \cite{Stasinopoulos_Rigby_2007} analysed the
head circumference of $7040$ males with explanatory variable age using
a GAMLSS model with a Box-Cox $t$ distribution describing the first four
moments of head circumference conditionally on age. The models show
evidence of kurtosis, especially for older boys.

<<heads-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
### Paul Eilers: Using 1/2 is better
data("db", package = "gamlss.data")
db$lage <- with(db, age^(1/3))

ldata <- db

fm_gam <- c("ctm" = head ~ bbs(lage),
            "stm" = head ~ bols(lage, intercept = FALSE) + bbs(lage, center = TRUE, df = 1))
fm_glm <- c("ctm" = head ~ bols(lage),
            "stm" = head ~ bols(lage, intercept = FALSE))

fm_tree <- head ~ .
N <- nrow(ldata)
@

We start with an unconditional model (using $\pZ = \Phi$ and an Bernstein
polynomial of order six):
<<heads-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- BoxCox(head ~ 1, data = ldata)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
an additive smooth model for $\parm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this
model was fitted using
<<heads-model, cache = TRUE>>=
fm_gam[["ctm"]]
bm <- ctmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_gam[["ctm"]], data = ldata, 
               method = quote(mboost::mboost))[1000]
@
The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}
and a QQ-plot based on the probability-integral transform in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<heads-risk, echo = FALSE, cache = TRUE>>=
<<insampleriskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<heads-pit, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 5, fig.height = 5, cache = TRUE, dev = "png">>=
pitplot(bm, ldata, main = ds[file])
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Probability-integral transform QQ-plot. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "qq")}}}
\end{figure}


Figure~\ref{heads-plot} shows the model as a growth curve model.  The
observations are overlaid with quantile curves obtained via inversion of the
estimated conditional distributions.  The figure can be directly compared
with Figure~16 of \cite{Stasinopoulos_Rigby_2007} (the quantile curves in
these two plots are essentially equivalent) and also indicates a
certain asymmetry towards older boys.

\begin{figure}[t]
<<heads-plot, fig.width = 6, fig.height = 4, echo = FALSE, dev = "png">>=
l <- with(db, seq(from = min(lage), to = max(lage), length = 100))
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
pr <- expand.grid(head = q, lage = l^3)
pr$p <- c(predict(bm, newdata = data.frame(lage = l), q = q, type = "distribution"))
pr$cut <- factor(pr$lage > 2.5)
levels(pr$cut) <- c("Age < 2.5 yrs", "Age > 2.5 yrs")

pfun <- function(x, y, z, subscripts, at, ...) {
    panel.contourplot(x, y, z, subscripts, 
        at = c(0.4, 2, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, 98, 99.6)/ 100, ...)
    panel.xyplot(x = db$age, y = db$head, pch = 20,
                 col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .1), ...)
}
print(contourplot(p ~ lage + head | cut, data = pr, panel = pfun, region = FALSE,
            xlab = "Age (years)", ylab = "Head circumference (cm)", 
            scales = list(x = list(relation = "free"))))
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Observed head circumference and age for 
         $7040$ boys with estimated quantile curves for 
         $\tau = 0.04, 0.02, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.9, 0.98, 0.996$.
         \label{heads-plot}}
\end{figure}


\subsection{PRO-ACT ALSFRS}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<ALSFRS-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_ALSFRS.rda"))
ylim <- NULL
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}

<<ALSFRS-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "ALSFRSdata.rda"))
ldata <- ALSFRSdata[complete.cases(ALSFRSdata),]

xvars <- names(ldata)
xvars <- xvars[xvars != "ALSFRS.halfYearAfter"]
fvars <- xvars[sapply(ldata[xvars], is.factor)]
nvars <- xvars[!xvars %in% fvars]

ldata[nvars] <- lapply(nvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))

fm_gam <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_glm <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- as.formula(paste("ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~ ", paste(xvars, collapse = "+")))

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]

@

This data origines from the PRO-ACT Prize4Life challenge 2012
(\url{http://prize4life.org.il/en/prediction-prize/}), comprising clinical
trials data from $N = \Sexpr{N}$ patients suffering Amypthropic Lateral
Sclerosis (ALS). The response is the ALS-Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS)
six months after diagnosis. For each patient, $\Sexpr{p}$ ($\Sexpr{p - xf}$ 
numeric and $\Sexpr{xf}$ categorical) predictors are available. An overview
on the challenge and winning algorithms is available from \cite{Kueffner_Zach_Norel_2014}.

The response is an ordinal variable, ranging from $0$ to $40$. We start with
an unconditional proportional odds model featuring a continuous basis
transformation of the response ($\pZ = \text{expit}$ and a Bernstein
polynomial of order six):
<<ALSFRS-model-0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- Colr(ALSFRS.halfYearAfter ~ 1, data = ldata, prob = c(.05, .9), extrapolate = TRUE)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file,
"0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<ALSFRS-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "density", K = 200,
     xlab = "ALSFRS at 6 months", ylab = "Density", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}

Model evaluation (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) indicated that 
a linear model for $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ (also known as ``distribution
regression'') had the best performance; this model was fitted using
<<ALSFRS-model, cache = TRUE>>=
bm <- ctmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_glm[["ctm"]], data = ldata, 
               method = quote(mboost::mboost))[613]
@
The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<ALSFRS-risk, echo = FALSE>>=
<<insampleriskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
\end{figure}

Time since onset and ALSFRS at time of diagnosis are the two most important
variables (roughly assessed by the selection frequency):
<<ALSFRS-prop, echo = FALSE>>=
tab <- matrix(tabulate(selected(bm), nbins = length(bm$baselearner)), ncol = 1)
rownames(tab) <- names(bm$baselearner)
colnames(tab) <- ""
tab[tab > 0,]
@

The response-varying coefficients for these two variables are given in
Figure~\ref{ALSFRS-plot}.

\begin{figure}
<<ALSFRS-plot, results = "hide", echo = FALSE>>=
cf <- mboost:::coef.mboost(bm)
q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 100)[[1]]
X <- model.matrix(m_mlt$model, data = data.frame(ALSFRS.halfYearAfter = q))
vars <- c("time_onset_treatment", "ALSFRS.Start") 
layout(matrix(1:length(vars), ncol = 2))
out <- sapply(vars, function(v) {
    cf <- matrix(cf[[grep(v, names(cf))]], ncol = 2, byrow = TRUE)
    cf <- cumsum(cf[,2])
    plot(q, X %*% cf, main = v, xlab = "ALSFRS at 6 months",
         ylab = "Varying coefficient", type = "l")
})
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Response-varying coefficients.
\label{ALSFRS-plot}}
\end{figure}


\subsection{PRO-ACT OS}

\begin{figure}[t]
<<ALSsurv-results, echo = FALSE, fig.width = 7, fig.height = 6>>=
load(file.path(dir, file <- "ex_ALSsurv.rda"))
ylim <- NULL
<<riskplot>>
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered by
out-of-sample log-likelihood of unconditional model). \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}}
\end{figure}


<<ALSsurv-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
load(file.path(datadir, "ALSsurvdata.rda"))

ldata <- ALSsurvdata[complete.cases(ALSsurvdata),]
ldata$y <- with(ldata, Surv(survival.time, cens))
ldata$survival.time <- NULL
ldata$cens <- NULL

nvars <- c("time_onset_treatment", "age", "height")
fvars <- names(ldata)[!names(ldata) %in% c("y", nvars)]
xvars <- c(nvars, fvars)

ldata[nvars] <- lapply(nvars, function(x) as.numeric(scale(ldata[[x]])))


fm_gam <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("y ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("y ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"), "+",
    paste("bbs(", nvars, ", center = TRUE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_glm <- c(
"ctm" = as.formula(paste("y ~ ",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", df = 2)", collapse = "+"))),
"stm" = as.formula(paste("y ~",
    paste("bols(", xvars, ", intercept = FALSE, df = 1)", collapse = "+"))))

fm_tree <- as.formula(paste("y ~ ", paste(xvars, collapse = "+")))

mf <- model.frame(fm_tree, data = ldata)
xf <- sum(sapply(mf[,-1], is.factor))
N <- dim(mf)[1]
p <- dim(mf)[2] - 1
vars <- names(mf)[-1]
@

Overall survival data from ALS patients were compiled from the PRO-ACT
database by \cite{Seibold_Zeileis_Hothorn_2017}.
For each of $N = \Sexpr{N}$ patients, $\Sexpr{p}$ ($\Sexpr{p - xf}$ 
numeric and $\Sexpr{xf}$ categorical) predictors are available.


We start with an unconditional Cox model ($\pZ = 1 - \exp(-\exp())$ and a
Bernstein polynomial of order six):
<<ALSsurv-model0, cache = TRUE>>=
m_mlt <- Coxph(y ~ 1, data = ldata)
logLik(m_mlt)
@
The corresponding unconditional distribution is depicted in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file,
"0")}}.

\begin{figure}
<<ALSsurv-null, echo = FALSE>>=
plot(as.mlt(m_mlt), newdata = data.frame(1), type = "survivor", K = 200,
     xlab = "ALS Overall Survival (in days)", ylab = "Probability", col = "black")
@
\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Unconditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "0")}}}
\end{figure}

Model evaluation 
%%% (Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "oob")}}) 
indicated that 
tree-based model for $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ had the best performance; this model was fitted using
<<ALSsurv-model, cache = TRUE, eval = FALSE>>=
fm_tree
bm <- stmboost(m_mlt, formula = fm_tree, data = ldata,
               control = boost_control(nu = 0.01),
               method = quote(mboost::blackboost))[451]
@
This model is roughly equivalent to a boosted Cox-model using trees as
baselearners:
<<ALSsurv-mlt, cache = TRUE, eval = FALSE, eval = FALSE>>=
blackboost(fm_tree, data = ldata, family = CoxPH())
@

%%% this takes too long for a package vignette
%The in-sample log-likelihood is shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}.
%
%\begin{figure}
%<<ALSsurv-risk, echo = FALSE>>=
%<<insampleriskplot>>
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. In-sample log-likelihood maximisation. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "ib")}}}
%\end{figure}
%
%For five selected observations, the conditional survivor curves 
%are shown in Figure~\ref{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}. 
%
%\begin{figure}
%<<ALSsurv-dens, echo = FALSE>>=
%idx <- sample(1:nrow(ldata), 5)
%q <- mkgrid(m_mlt, n = 200)[[1]]
%matplot(x = q, y = d <- predict(bm, newdata = ldata[idx,], type = "survivor", q = q), type =
%        "l", col = rgb(.1, .1, .1, .6), lty = 1, xlab = "ALS Overall Survival (in days)", ylab = "Probability")
%@
%\caption{\Sexpr{ds[file]}. Conditional response distribution. \label{\Sexpr{paste0("fig", file, "1")}}}
%\end{figure}

\section{Artificial Data Generating Processes} \label{sec:dgp}

\subsection{Simulation Models}

Data were generated based on two groups and one numeric predictor variable $x \in [0, 1]$
based on transformation models of the form
\begin{eqnarray*}
\Prob(\rY \le \ry \mid \text{Group}, x) = \Phi(h(\ry \mid \text{Group}, x))
\end{eqnarray*}
where the conditional transformation function $\h(\ry \mid \text{Group}, x) = \Phi^{-1}(\Prob(\rY \le \ry \mid \text{Group},
x))$ for four data generating processes is given in Table~\ref{tab:dgp}.

\begin{table}
\begin{tabular}{lll} \hline
DGP & $\Phi^{-1}(\Prob(\rY \le \ry \mid \text{Group 1}, x))$ & $\Phi^{-1}(\Prob(\rY \le \ry \mid \text{Group 2}, x))$ \\
\hline \hline
Linear $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) - 2 x$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) + 2 - x$ \\
Nonlinear $\eshiftparm(\rx)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) - 2 g(x)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) + 2 - g(x)$ \\
Linear $\parm(\rx)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) - \eshiftparm_1(\ry) -  \eshiftparm_2(\ry) x$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) + \eshiftparm_1(\ry) - (\eshiftparm_2(\ry) + \eshiftparm_3(\ry)) x$ \\
Nonlinear $\parm(\rx)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) - \eshiftparm_1(\ry) -  \eshiftparm_2(\ry) g(x)$ & $\h_\rY(\ry) + \eshiftparm_1(\ry) - (\eshiftparm_2(\ry) + \eshiftparm_3(\ry)) g(x)$ \\ \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Artificial Data Generating Processes (DGPs). Description of four
simulation models. $g(x) = \sin(2 \pi x)(1 + x)$, $\h_\rY, \eshiftparm_1,
\eshiftparm_2, \eshiftparm_3$ are Bernstein polynomials of order six.
\label{tab:dgp}}
\end{table}

General parameters of the simulation were defined as
<<dgp>>=
library("tram")
### set-up RNG
set.seed(27031105)
### order of Bernstein polynomials
order <- 6
### support of distributions
sup <- c(-4, 6)
### bounds (essentially for plots)
bds <- c(-8, 8)
### shift effects: main effect of grp, x, and interaction effect
beta <- c(-2, 2, -1)
@
Group information and $x$ along with $g(x)$ was generated via
<<dgp-data>>=
### two groups
grp <- gl(2, 1)
### uniform predictor
x <- seq(from = 0, to = 1, length.out = 1000)
d <- expand.grid(grp = grp, x = x)
### transformation of x: sin(2 pi x) (1 + x)
d$g <- with(d, sin(x * 2 * pi) * (1 + x))
### generate some response (this is NOT the 
### response used for the simulations)
X <- model.matrix(~ grp * x, data = d)[,-1]
d$y <- rnorm(nrow(d), mean = X %*% beta)
@

For the first model (``Linear $\eshiftparm(\rx)$''), the 
baseline transformation $\h_\rY$ is a nonlinear function, parameterised
as a Bernstein polynomial with the following coefficients
<<dgp-Linear-beta>>=
### h_Y
(cf0 <- seq(from = sup[1], to = sup[2], length = order + 1) + 
        sin(seq(from = 0, to = 2*pi, length = order + 1)) * 
        (seq(from = 0, to = 2*pi, length = order + 1) <= pi) * 2)
m1 <- BoxCox(y ~ grp * x, data = d, order = order, 
             model_only = TRUE, support = sup, bounds = bds)
cf <- coef(m1)
(cf[] <- c(cf0, beta))
coef(m1) <- cf
@
The linear part simply consists of a main effect of group, a main effect of
$x$ and an interaction effect. This is a linear transformation model with
nonnormal response.

The second model (``Nonlinear $\eshiftparm(\rx)$'') is based on the same
coefficients, however, after the transformation $g(x)$
<<dgp-Nonlinear-beta>>=
m2 <- BoxCox(y ~ grp * g, data = d, order = order, 
             model_only = TRUE, support = sup, bounds = bds)
cf <- coef(m2)
cf[] <- c(cf0, beta)
coef(m2) <- cf
@

The third model (``Linear $\parm(\rx)$'') is a distribution regression
model featuring response-varying coefficients:
<<dgp-Linear-parm>>=
m3 <- BoxCox(y | grp * x ~ 1, data = d, order = order, 
             model_only = TRUE, support = sup, bounds = bds)
cf <- coef(m3)

### beta_1
(cf1 <- sin(seq(from = 0, to = pi / 2, length.out = order + 1)) * beta[1])
### beta_2
(cf2 <- sqrt(seq(from = 0, to = 2, length.out = order + 1)) / sqrt(2) * beta[2])
### beta_3
(cf21 <- sin(seq(from = 0, to = pi / 2, length.out = order + 1)) * beta[3])

cf[] <- c(cf0, cf1, cf2, cf21)
coef(m3) <- cf
@

In the last model (``Nonlinear $\parm(\rx)$''), the same response-varying
coefficients are used after the transformation $g(x)$:
<<dgp-Nonlinear-parm>>=
m4 <- BoxCox(y | grp * g ~ 1, data = d, order = order, 
             model_only = TRUE, support = sup, bounds = bds)
cf <- coef(m4)

cf[] <- c(cf0, cf1, cf2, cf21)
coef(m4) <- cf
@

The conditional transformation functions are depicted in
Figure~\ref{fig:dgp}.

\begin{figure}
\begin{center}
<<plot-dgp, echo = FALSE,  fig.width = 6, fig.height = 8, dev = "png">>=

xlim <- c(-5, 5)
q <- mkgrid(m1, n = 500)[["y"]]
x <- 0:10 / 10
nd <- expand.grid(grp = grp, x = x)
ndq <- expand.grid(y = q, grp = grp, x = x)
ndq$xconfig <- with(ndq, interaction(grp, factor(x)))
nd$g <- with(nd, sin(x * 2 * pi) * (1 + x))

ndq$d1 <- c(predict(m1, newdata = nd, type = "density", q = q))
ndq$d2 <- c(predict(m2, newdata = nd, type = "density", q = q))
ndq$d3 <- c(predict(m3, newdata = nd, type = "density", q = q))
ndq$d4 <- c(predict(m4, newdata = nd, type = "density", q = q))

ndq$t1 <- c(predict(m1, newdata = nd, type = "trafo", q = q))
ndq$t2 <- c(predict(m2, newdata = nd, type = "trafo", q = q))
ndq$t3 <- c(predict(m3, newdata = nd, type = "trafo", q = q))
ndq$t4 <- c(predict(m4, newdata = nd, type = "trafo", q = q))

colr <- rep(grey.colors(length(x), alpha = .9), each = 2)
xlim <- bds

ret <- do.call("rbind", list(ndq)[rep(1, 4)])
ret$d <- with(ndq, c(d1, d2, d3, d4))
ret$t <- with(ndq, c(t1, t2, t3, t4))
ret$model <- gl(4, nrow(ndq))
levels(ret$model) <- mlev <- c("GLM Tram", "GAM Tram", "DR", "CTM")
ret$model <- factor(as.character(ret$model), levels = rev(mlev), labels = rev(mlev))
levels(ret$grp) <- c("Group 1", "Group 2")

lev <- c(expression(paste("Nonlinear ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Linear ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Nonlinear ", beta(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Linear ", beta(bold(x)))))

sc <- function(which.given, ..., factor.levels) {
    if (which.given == 1) {
        strip.default(which.given = which.given, ..., factor.levels)
    } else {
        if (which.given == 2)
            strip.default(which.given = 2, ..., factor.levels = lev)
   }
}


obj <- (xyplot(t ~ y | grp + model, data = ret, type = "l", groups = xconfig, col = colr, strip = sc,
     lwd = 2, lty = 1, xlim = xlim, layout = c(4, 2), ylab = "Transformation h", xlab = "Response Y", 
     scales = list(y = list(relation = "free"))))

obj <- useOuterStrips(obj, strip.left = function(which.given, ..., factor.levels) 
    strip.custom(horizontal = FALSE)(which.given = which.given, ..., factor.levels = lev))

plot(obj <- update(obj, legend = list(right = list(fun = "draw.colorkey", 
                   args = list(list(at = 1:22 / 22, col = colr, title = "x"))))))

trellis.focus("legend", side="right", clipp.off=TRUE, highlight=FALSE)
grid.text(expression(x), 0.5, 1.07, hjust=0.5, vjust=1)
trellis.unfocus()
@
\caption{Artificial Data Generating Processes. Conditional transformation functions $h(\ry \mid \text{Group}, x)$ given two
         groups (left and right panel) and $x \in [0, 1]$ (grey color
         coding) for four different types of transformation models. \label{fig:dgp}}
\end{center}
\end{figure}

Samples from the conditional distributions described by these four models
were drawn as follows:
<<simulate, eval = FALSE>>=
y1 <- simulate(m1, newdata = d, n = 100)
y2 <- simulate(m2, newdata = d, n = 100)
y3 <- simulate(m3, newdata = d, n = 100)
y4 <- simulate(m4, newdata = d, n = 100)
@

For each combination of data generating process, sample size ($N = 75, 150,
300)$, number of additional uninformative predictor variables ($J^+ = 0, 5,
25$), two choices of $\pZ$ (standard normal and standard logistic in the
specification of the boosting procedure, the data were always generated
using $\pZ = \Phi$), and two choices of the order of the Bernstein
polynomials (six and $12$, also only for the specification of the boosting
procedures ), the out-of-sample log-likelihood was estimated for $100$
simulation runs. Very extreme outliers (centered log-likelihoods smaller than
$-10^5$) were not drawn.

\subsection{Results} \label{sec:results}

The following figures depict the out-of-sample log-likelihoods (centered by
the out-of-sample log-likelihood of the true model) for each combination of
distribution function $\pZ$, number of additional noninformative uniform
predictors $J^+$, and order $M$ of the Bernstein polynomial. The panels
correspond to the different DGPs (columns) and sample sizes (rows).
Abbreviations of the boosting procedures and basis functions used are given
at the x-axis. The boxplot of the best performing model is highlighted in
yellow.

<<dgp-setup, echo = FALSE>>=
dir <- system.file("simulations", package = "tbm")
ctm <- list.files(path = dir, pattern = "ctm.*rda", full = TRUE)
tram <- list.files(path = dir, pattern = "tram.*rda", full = TRUE)

out <- c()

for (f in c(ctm, tram)) {

    load(f)

    out <- rbind(out, ret)

}

out$model <- factor(out$model, levels = c("ctm_gam", "ctm_glm", "ctm_tree", "tram_gam", "tram_glm", "tram_tree"),
                    labels = c("gam_ctm", "glm_ctm", "tree_ctm", "gam_tram", "glm_tram", "tree_tram"))

out$PNON <- factor(out$PNON)
nlab <- paste("N =", nlev <- rev(sort(unique(out$NOBS))))
out$NOBS <- factor(out$NOBS, levels = nlev, labels = nlab)
out$m <- factor(out$m)
out$todistr <- factor(out$todistr)
out$order <- factor(out$order)

out$boost_ll[grep("rror", out$boost_ll)] <- NA
out$boost_ll <- as.double(out$boost_ll)
out$true_ll <- as.double(out$true_ll)
out$mlt_ll <- as.double(out$mlt_ll)
out$mstop <- as.double(out$mstop)

out$todistr <- factor(as.character(out$todistr), levels = c("normal", "logistic", "minextrval"), 
                      labels = c("Normal", "Logistic", "MEV"))

lev <- rev(c(expression(paste("Nonlinear ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Linear ", bold(vartheta)(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Nonlinear ", beta(bold(x)))),
         expression(paste("Linear ", beta(bold(x))))))

sc <- function(which.given, ..., factor.levels) {
    if (which.given == 2) {
        strip.default(which.given = which.given, ..., factor.levels)
    } else {
        if (which.given == 1)
            strip.default(which.given = 1, ..., factor.levels = lev)
   }
}

  mypanel <- function(x, y, groups, subscripts, ...) {
    med <- tapply(y, x, median, na.rm = TRUE)
    panel.bwplot(x = x, y = y, col = col[(med == max(med)) + 1], 
                 fill = col[(med == max(med)) + 1], pch = "|", ...)
    panel.abline(v = c(3.5), col = "lightgrey")
    panel.abline(h = 0, col = "lightgrey")
    panel.abline(h = max(med), col = col[2])
    panel.bwplot(x = x, y = y, col = col[(med == max(med)) + 1], 
                 fill = col[(med == max(med)) + 1], pch = "|", ...)
#    tapply(1:length(y), groups[subscripts], function(i) {
#        llines(x = 1:nlevels(x), y = y[i][order(x[i])], 
#               col = rgb(0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1))
#    })
  }



@

<<dgp-1, results = "asis", echo = FALSE>>=
lto <- levels(out$todistr)
lp <- levels(out$PNON)
lo <- levels(out$order)

ret <- c()

i <- 1
for (l1 in lto) {
    for(l2 in lp) {
       for (l3 in lo) {
           os <- subset(out, todistr == l1 & PNON == l2 & order == l3)
           os <- subset(os, boost_ll - true_ll > -10000)

           txt <- paste("J = ", l2, "M = ", l3)
           if (l1 == "Normal") {
               main <- expression(F[Z] == Phi)
           } else if (l1 == "Logistic") {
               main <- expression(F[Z] == expit)
           } else {
               main <- expression(F[Z] == MEV)
           }
           pdf(fig <- paste("sfig", i, ".pdf", sep = ""), width = 12, height = 8)
           pl <- bwplot(I(boost_ll - true_ll) ~ model |  m + NOBS, data = os, main = main, strip = sc, 
                        ylab = "Out-of-sample log-likelihood (centered)",
                        xlab = txt, panel = mypanel,
                        scales = list(y = list(relation = "free"),
                                      x = list(at = 1:6, label = models[levels(os$model)])))
           plot(pl)
           dev.off()
           ret <- c(ret, "\\begin{sidewaysfigure}",
               "\\begin{center}",
               paste("\\includegraphics{", fig, "}", sep = ""),
               "\\end{center}",
               "\\end{sidewaysfigure}", " ")
           i <- i + 1
        }
    }
}
writeLines(ret)
@

\clearpage

\bibliography{mlt,appl,packages}

<<funs, echo = FALSE, results='hide', purl = FALSE>>=
if (file.exists("packages.bib")) file.remove("packages.bib")
pkgversion <- function(pkg) {
    pkgbib(pkg)
    packageDescription(pkg)$Version
}
pkgbib <- function(pkg) {
    x <- citation(package = pkg, auto = TRUE)[[1]]
    b <- toBibtex(x)
    b <- gsub("Buehlmann", "B{\\\\\"u}hlmann", b)

    i <- grep("title = \\{ICsurv", b)
    if (length(i) == 1)
       b[i] <- "  title = {ICsurv: A Package for Semiparametric Regression Analysis of Interval-censored Data},"

    i <- grep("title = \\{dynsurv", b)
    if (length(i) == 1)
       b[i] <- "  title = {dynsurv: Dynamic Models for Survival Data},"

    i <- grep("title = \\{np", b)
    if (length(i) == 1)
       b[i] <- "  title = {np: Nonparametric Kernel Smoothing Methods for Mixed Data Types},"

    i <- grep("Kenneth Hess", b)
    if (length(i) == 1)
       b[i] <- "  author = {Kenneth Hess and Robert Gentleman},"

    b <- gsub("with contributions from", "and", b)

    b <- gsub("Göran Broström", "G\\\\\"oran Brostr\\\\\"om", b)

    b <- gsub(" The publishers web page is", "},", b)
    b <- gsub("http://www.crcpress.com/product/isbn/9781584885740},", "", b)

    b <- gsub("R package", "\\\\proglang{R} package", b)

    b[1] <- paste("@Manual{pkg:", pkg, ",", sep = "")
    if (is.na(b["url"])) {
        b[length(b)] <- paste("   URL = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=",
                              pkg, "}", sep = "")
        b <- c(b, "}")
    }
    cat(b, sep = "\n", file = "packages.bib", append = TRUE)
}
pkg <- function(pkg)
    paste("\\\\pkg{", pkg, "} \\\\citep[version~",
          pkgversion(pkg), ",][]{pkg:", pkg, "}", sep = "")

pkgs <- c("mlt", "variables", "basefun", "survival", "trtf")
library("trtf")
out <- sapply(pkgs, pkg)

cat(c("@Manual{pkg:tbm,",
             "    title = {tbm: Transformation Boosting Machines},",
             "    author = {Torsten Hothorn},",
             paste("    year = ", substr(packageDescription("tbm")$Date, 1, 4), ",", sep = ""),
             paste("    note = {{R} package version ", packageDescription("tbm")$Version, "},", sep = ""),
             "    url = {https://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/ctm/},",
             "}"), file = "packages.bib", append = TRUE, sep = "\n")


x <- readLines("packages.bib")
for (p in pkgs)
    x <- gsub(paste("\\{", p, ":", sep = ""), paste("\\{\\\\pkg{", p, "}:", sep = ""), x)
cat(x, sep = "\n", file = "packages.bib", append = FALSE)
@

<<sessionInfo, echo = FALSE, results = "hide">>=
sessionInfo()
@

\end{document}
